We have lived through the portal war, the browser war and the search engine war. Now we are in the midst of the social network connection war between Twitter, Google, Yahoo, Facebook and other less likely to succeed players. Everyone is opening up their API’s and trying to control as much of the social network landscape as possible. They want to control your social profile on the web and it is starting to get dangerous out there. Twitter is the biggest wild card and may have actually started this war. They created the most open API we may have ever seen. The Twitter API is a culmination of what open source has brought to the Internet and the idea that giving away technology isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, Twitter has become so popular that if they happen to get acquired by one of the major players, like Google and Facebook, that could end the war in itself.
I personally feel that Yahoo was in the best position for a long time to control the social web. They did such a good job with their groups and profiles that extended to all areas of their content. Unfortunately, they may be the least likely to win this war unless they somehow merge with Microsoft and then, maybe, they have a chance. Google is coming in late to this war. They are pushing Google connect out and just because they are late doesn’t mean they can’t win. Google has a lot of power on the web and you don’t necessarily know them as a social destination but that could change in a hurry if they acquire Twitter. Google connect does have promise though because they have so many profiles already that can be converted into social profiles through Gmail and all their other popular tools.
Facebook is in a prime position to win this war because they are already known as a great social network. They attempted to buy Twitter and were denied. Now they have changed their look and technology to mimic what Twitter has done and so far I think it looks good. They have really opened up their Facebook Connect program and are really trying to spread their influence around the web. They do need to be worried about Twitter though and especially if Google acquires them. For now though, they are the leading contender in this war.
There is one contender that remains, that I haven’t mentioned, Apple. Will Apple attempt to get involved in this war or will they sit on the sidelines and just build the hardware that will be used by these social networks. In my opinion, Apple must get involved while they are so popular. Apple’s dominance is due to their software and software is moving to the web. We will be relying less on our hardware in the future and instead on our bandwidth and power of applications made for the browser. Apple needs to stay in command in this area and the winner of the social network war may become the dominant power in web applications because of the audience that will be at their fingertips. Could Apple make a play for Twitter? Now that would be a surprise and also a major attack upon Google that may finally change the landscape of Google’s dominance in search.
Twitter is becoming a big threat to Google and Apple and Google are already starting to compete in some big markets, especially in the mobile OS market. Everyone may be overestimating the need to control the social web and there may be room for a few large players. There will always be aggregators out there to help with the diversification of social platforms. I don’t expect there will be one dominant force out there but one or two of the above players may be greatly affected by the outcome. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
